Inside Breakout’s Second 14-Team Fantasy Basketball Industry Mock Draft
About a month after our first 14-team Industry Mock, we ran the same 14-team · 9CAT H2H · 3RR format again, this time as a live draft.
Format: 14 teams · 9CAT H2H · 3RR · live draft
Drafted: October 2026
Our first Industry Mock was particularly interesting for the different roster constructions that emerged. The second draft told a different story: the top of the board was relatively settled, but once the room reached the middle rounds, managers became much more willing to move away from consensus and take the players they valued most.
Participants
- Adam King — @Adamking91 (Old Man Squad)
- Adam Stock — @AdamGStock (Elite Fantasy Basketball)
- Alex Barutha — @BaruthaAlex (RotoWire)
- BDub — @FBIBasketball (Fantasy Basketball International)
- Chuckball — Airball Association
- Dan Titus — @DanTitus (Yahoo)
- Erik Ong — @9CatNinja (Hashtag Basketball)
- Matt | League Winner — @LeagueWinnerNBA
- MattyG — @NBAGeeWhiz (Old Man Squad)
- NBA Fantasy Bible — @NBAFantasyBible
- Nick Whalen — @wha1en (RotoWire)
- Papi Roi — @NBAFantasyPapi (Fantasy Basketball PH)
From Breakout:
- bigpictureonly — @bigpictureonly
- Milo — @milo_breakout
The completed 14-team live Industry Mock in the Breakout Draftroom.
Inside the Breakout Draftroom
Old Man Squad walked through the Breakout Draftroom during the Industry Mock, including the live draft experience and in-draft analysis tools.
*Breakout Draftroom walkthrough courtesy of Old Man Squad’s The Take, featuring MattyG and Adam King.*Consensus early, conviction later
The opening two rounds were remarkably close to market. Picks landed just 1.9 spots from Breakout ADP on average, with 22 of the first 28 selections coming within three spots of ADP.
That changed quickly in the middle rounds. Across Rounds 3–6, the average gap from Breakout ADP expanded to 7.1 picks, as individual player evaluations started to matter more than consensus price.
Rounds 1–2 averaged just 1.9 picks from Breakout ADP. Across Rounds 3–6, that gap expanded to 7.1.
Biggest deviations from Breakout ADP
The clearest conviction picks came in the middle rounds. Matas Buzelis, Dejounte Murray, Kel’el Ware and Ryan Rollins were all selected more than a full round ahead of their Breakout ADP.
| Player | Pick | Breakout ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Buzelis | 46 | 65.8 | 19.8 early |
| Dejounte Murray | 39 | 58.4 | 19.4 early |
| Kel’el Ware | 57 | 74.8 | 17.8 early |
| Ryan Rollins | 63 | 79.1 | 16.1 early |
For the other side of the market: Zion Williamson, Alex Sarr, Deni Avdija and Julius Randle all remained available well beyond their Breakout ADP, suggesting this particular room was materially less willing to pay the prevailing market price.
| Player | Pick | Breakout ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 90 | 69.8 | 20.2 late |
| Alex Sarr | 73 | 57.4 | 15.6 late |
| Deni Avdija | 55 | 40.9 | 14.1 late |
| Julius Randle | 77 | 62.9 | 14.1 late |
What changed in a month
Because the two Industry Mocks used the same 14-team, 9CAT and 3RR format, we could compare the boards directly. The top remained remarkably stable: among the 26 players who appeared inside the top 28 in both drafts, average movement was only 2.5 picks.
Further down the board, valuations moved much more aggressively. 44 players shifted by at least a full round between the two drafts, with most of the largest moves coming in the middle and later rounds.
Biggest risers
| Player | Mock 1 | Mock 2 | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 37 | 24 | ↑ 13 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 39 | 29 | ↑ 10 |
| Matas Buzelis | 57 | 46 | ↑ 11 |
| Franz Wagner | 61 | 50 | ↑ 11 |
| Ivica Zubac | 77 | 62 | ↑ 15 |
| Damian Lillard | 84 | 69 | ↑ 15 |
| Jarrett Allen | 92 | 70 | ↑ 22 |
| Day’Ron Sharpe | 93 | 76 | ↑ 17 |
| Dylan Harper | 95 | 81 | ↑ 14 |
| Derik Queen | 102 | 75 | ↑ 27 |
| Cedric Coward | 113 | 82 | ↑ 31 |
| Cason Wallace | 116 | 85 | ↑ 31 |
Cedric Coward and Cason Wallace each climbed 31 spots, Derik Queen moved up 27, and Jarrett Allen rose 22 spots from the first mock.
Biggest fallers
| Player | Mock 1 | Mock 2 | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 19 | 28 | ↓ 9 |
| Donovan Clingan | 35 | 52 | ↓ 17 |
| Dyson Daniels | 53 | 68 | ↓ 15 |
| Alex Sarr | 52 | 73 | ↓ 21 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 74 | 89 | ↓ 15 |
| Caleb Wilson | 79 | 95 | ↓ 16 |
| Myles Turner | 72 | 99 | ↓ 27 |
| Nic Claxton | 88 | 103 | ↓ 15 |
| Fred VanVleet | 96 | 118 | ↓ 22 |
| Zach LaVine | 103 | 125 | ↓ 22 |
| CJ McCollum | 99 | 128 | ↓ 29 |
CJ McCollum dropped 29 spots, Myles Turner fell 27, while Fred VanVleet and Zach LaVine each moved down more than 20 selections.
44 players moved by at least a full round between the two Industry Mocks.
Where the industry room differed from mainstream ADP
The gaps widened further when we compared the draft against blended Yahoo, ESPN and Fantrax ADP. Players such as Dejounte Murray, Cason Wallace and John Collins went around two rounds earlier than the mainstream market, while AJ Dybantsa, Jabari Smith Jr. and Paolo Banchero lasted substantially longer.
Taken earlier
| Player | Industry Mock | Blended ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | 39 | 72 | 33 early |
| Cason Wallace | 85 | 118 | 33 early |
| John Collins | 86 | 116 | 30 early |
| Ty Jerome | 91 | 113 | 22 early |
| Ajay Mitchell | 98 | 118 | 20 early |
| Matas Buzelis | 46 | 65 | 19 early |
| Day’Ron Sharpe | 76 | 95 | 19 early |
| Darius Garland | 48 | 66 | 18 early |
| Jalen Suggs | 93 | 111 | 18 early |
| Kel’el Ware | 57 | 74 | 17 early |
Taken later
| Player | Industry Mock | Blended ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dybantsa | 105 | 79 | 26 late |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 116 | 93 | 23 late |
| Zion Williamson | 90 | 69 | 21 late |
| Paolo Banchero | 54 | 34 | 20 late |
| Jaylen Brown | 44 | 27 | 17 late |
| Caleb Wilson | 95 | 79 | 16 late |
| Deni Avdija | 55 | 40 | 15 late |
| VJ Edgecombe | 88 | 73 | 15 late |
Overall, Breakout ADP sat closer to the Industry Mock than the blended mainstream data did. That doesn't necessarily make either market more accurate, but it does show that this room's valuations were already closer to where Breakout drafters had been pricing many of these players.
How those convictions shaped the teams
The second mock was less defined by extreme roster constructions than the first, but the finished category profiles still showed some clear identities.
Alex Barutha built around Kevin Durant, Austin Reaves, Trae Young, Deni Avdija and Tyler Herro. The combination produced a strong offensive profile, finishing top five in FG%, FT%, 3PM and AST, with steals and blocks becoming the main trade-offs.
NBA Fantasy Bible went even further into guard creation with Jamal Murray, James Harden, De’Aaron Fox and Immanuel Quickley. That roster finished 1st in FT% and AST, while giving up ground in FG% and rebounds.
9CatNinja leaned into perimeter production and defensive wings with Jayson Tatum, Trey Murphy, Darius Garland, OG Anunoby and Jalen Suggs. The finished roster ranked 1st in both 3PM and steals, while FG% and rebounds became its weakest areas.
Try the Breakout Draftroom
Both Industry Mocks were run in the Breakout Draftroom, with live draft boards, 3RR support, punt-adjusted rankings, category heatmaps, z-score profiles and post-draft analysis.
Draft at breakout.gg.
Full 2026–27 Breakout Industry Mock Draft Results: All 182 Picks
Below are the complete results from Breakout's second fantasy basketball Industry Mock Draft, held in October 2026.
The draft featured 14 teams, 9-category head-to-head scoring, third-round reversal (3RR), and 13 rounds, with 182 players selected.
For comparison, see Breakout's first 14-team Industry Mock Draft and analysis, held in September 2026.
Chuckball (Airball Association) — Pick 1
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Victor Wembanyama |
| 2 | 28 | Anthony Davis |
| 3 | 42 | Jalen Duren |
| 4 | 43 | Kyrie Irving |
| 5 | 70 | Jarrett Allen |
| 6 | 71 | Ausar Thompson |
| 7 | 98 | Ajay Mitchell |
| 8 | 99 | Myles Turner |
| 9 | 126 | Toumani Camara |
| 10 | 127 | Peyton Watson |
| 11 | 154 | Herb Jones |
| 12 | 155 | Rui Hachimura |
| 13 | 182 | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
bigpictureonly (Breakout) — Pick 2
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Nikola Jokić |
| 2 | 27 | Chet Holmgren |
| 3 | 41 | Brandon Miller |
| 4 | 44 | Jaylen Brown |
| 5 | 69 | Damian Lillard |
| 6 | 72 | Paul George |
| 7 | 97 | Josh Hart |
| 8 | 100 | Darryn Peterson |
| 9 | 125 | Zach LaVine |
| 10 | 128 | CJ McCollum |
| 11 | 153 | Anthony Black |
| 12 | 156 | Draymond Green |
| 13 | 181 | Maxime Raynaud |
Milo (Breakout) — Pick 3
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
| 2 | 26 | Kawhi Leonard |
| 3 | 40 | Derrick White |
| 4 | 45 | LeBron James |
| 5 | 68 | Dyson Daniels |
| 6 | 73 | Alex Sarr |
| 7 | 96 | Andrew Wiggins |
| 8 | 101 | Isaiah Hartenstein |
| 9 | 124 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. |
| 10 | 129 | Yaxel Lendeborg |
| 11 | 152 | Nikola Vučević |
| 12 | 157 | Sam Merrill |
| 13 | 180 | Keon Ellis |
Adam King (Old Man Squad) — Pick 4
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Luka Dončić |
| 2 | 25 | Evan Mobley |
| 3 | 39 | Dejounte Murray |
| 4 | 46 | Matas Buzelis |
| 5 | 67 | Stephon Castle |
| 6 | 74 | Naz Reid |
| 7 | 95 | Caleb Wilson |
| 8 | 102 | Darius Acuff Jr. |
| 9 | 123 | Kyshawn George |
| 10 | 130 | Jeremiah Fears |
| 11 | 151 | Joan Beringer |
| 12 | 158 | Collin Sexton |
| 13 | 179 | Morez Johnson Jr. |
Nick Whalen (RotoWire) — Pick 5
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Cade Cunningham |
| 2 | 24 | Devin Booker |
| 3 | 38 | Walker Kessler |
| 4 | 47 | Kon Knueppel |
| 5 | 66 | Michael Porter Jr. |
| 6 | 75 | Derik Queen |
| 7 | 94 | Ja Morant |
| 8 | 103 | Nic Claxton |
| 9 | 122 | RJ Barrett |
| 10 | 131 | Isaiah Stewart |
| 11 | 150 | DeMar DeRozan |
| 12 | 159 | Max Strus |
| 13 | 178 | Kris Dunn |
Erik Ong / 9CatNinja (Hashtag Basketball) — Pick 6
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Jayson Tatum |
| 2 | 23 | Josh Giddey |
| 3 | 37 | Trey Murphy III |
| 4 | 48 | Darius Garland |
| 5 | 65 | OG Anunoby |
| 6 | 76 | Day'Ron Sharpe |
| 7 | 93 | Jalen Suggs |
| 8 | 104 | Khaman Maluach |
| 9 | 121 | Sandro Mamukelashvili |
| 10 | 132 | Reed Sheppard |
| 11 | 149 | Quentin Grimes |
| 12 | 160 | Collin Gillespie |
| 13 | 177 | Scotty Pippen Jr. |
MattyG (Old Man Squad) — Pick 7
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Anthony Edwards |
| 2 | 22 | LaMelo Ball |
| 3 | 36 | Jaren Jackson Jr. |
| 4 | 49 | Onyeka Okongwu |
| 5 | 64 | Cameron Boozer |
| 6 | 77 | Julius Randle |
| 7 | 92 | Norman Powell |
| 8 | 105 | AJ Dybantsa |
| 9 | 120 | Moussa Diabaté |
| 10 | 133 | Egor Dëmin |
| 11 | 148 | Yves Missi |
| 12 | 161 | Tobias Harris |
| 13 | 176 | Bobby Portis |
Adam Stock (Elite Fantasy Basketball) — Pick 8
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
| 2 | 21 | Stephen Curry |
| 3 | 35 | Bam Adebayo |
| 4 | 50 | Franz Wagner |
| 5 | 63 | Ryan Rollins |
| 6 | 78 | Rudy Gobert |
| 7 | 91 | Ty Jerome |
| 8 | 106 | Collin Murray-Boyles |
| 9 | 119 | Grayson Allen |
| 10 | 134 | Isaiah Jackson |
| 11 | 147 | Andrew Nembhard |
| 12 | 162 | P.J. Washington |
| 13 | 175 | De'Anthony Melton |
Papi Roi (Fantasy Basketball PH) — Pick 9
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | Tyrese Maxey |
| 2 | 20 | Alperen Şengün |
| 3 | 34 | Jalen Williams |
| 4 | 51 | Pascal Siakam |
| 5 | 62 | Ivica Zubac |
| 6 | 79 | Coby White |
| 7 | 90 | Zion Williamson |
| 8 | 107 | Jalen Green |
| 9 | 118 | Fred VanVleet |
| 10 | 135 | Paul Reed |
| 11 | 146 | Kristaps Porziņģis |
| 12 | 163 | Jonathan Kuminga |
| 13 | 174 | Keaton Wagler |
NBA Fantasy Bible / D-Mac — Pick 10
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | Cooper Flagg |
| 2 | 19 | Jamal Murray |
| 3 | 33 | James Harden |
| 4 | 52 | Donovan Clingan |
| 5 | 61 | Zach Edey |
| 6 | 80 | De'Aaron Fox |
| 7 | 89 | Immanuel Quickley |
| 8 | 108 | Ayo Dosunmu |
| 9 | 117 | Kevin Porter Jr. |
| 10 | 136 | Tre Jones |
| 11 | 145 | Brandon Ingram |
| 12 | 164 | Saddiq Bey |
| 13 | 173 | Dillon Brooks |
BDub (Fantasy Basketball International) — Pick 11
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Scottie Barnes |
| 2 | 18 | Karl-Anthony Towns |
| 3 | 32 | Domantas Sabonis |
| 4 | 53 | Keyonte George |
| 5 | 60 | Joel Embiid |
| 6 | 81 | Dylan Harper |
| 7 | 88 | VJ Edgecombe |
| 8 | 109 | Miles Bridges |
| 9 | 116 | Jabari Smith Jr. |
| 10 | 137 | Tari Eason |
| 11 | 144 | Devin Vassell |
| 12 | 165 | Al Horford |
| 13 | 172 | Brook Lopez |
Dan Titus (Yahoo) — Pick 12
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | Jalen Johnson |
| 2 | 17 | Amen Thompson |
| 3 | 31 | Jalen Brunson |
| 4 | 54 | Paolo Banchero |
| 5 | 59 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker |
| 6 | 82 | Cedric Coward |
| 7 | 87 | Mikal Bridges |
| 8 | 110 | Davion Mitchell |
| 9 | 115 | Brandin Podziemski |
| 10 | 138 | Daniel Gafford |
| 11 | 143 | Wendell Carter Jr. |
| 12 | 166 | Aaron Gordon |
| 13 | 171 | Pelle Larsson |
Alex Barutha (RotoWire) — Pick 13
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | Kevin Durant |
| 2 | 16 | Austin Reaves |
| 3 | 30 | Trae Young |
| 4 | 55 | Deni Avdija |
| 5 | 58 | Tyler Herro |
| 6 | 83 | Payton Pritchard |
| 7 | 86 | John Collins |
| 8 | 111 | Jusuf Nurkić |
| 9 | 114 | Jakob Poeltl |
| 10 | 139 | Gui Santos |
| 11 | 142 | Jrue Holiday |
| 12 | 167 | Christian Braun |
| 13 | 170 | Naji Marshall |
Matt / League Winner — Pick 14
| Round | Pick | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | Tyrese Haliburton |
| 2 | 15 | Donovan Mitchell |
| 3 | 29 | Lauri Markkanen |
| 4 | 56 | Desmond Bane |
| 5 | 57 | Kel'el Ware |
| 6 | 84 | Jaden McDaniels |
| 7 | 85 | Cason Wallace |
| 8 | 112 | Neemias Queta |
| 9 | 113 | Keegan Murray |
| 10 | 140 | Cameron Johnson |
| 11 | 141 | Mitchell Robinson |
| 12 | 168 | Aaron Nesmith |
| 13 | 169 | De'Andre Hunter |
